Thursday, August 14, 2008

When you have a complex problem, & it's an important topic ... who do you pick to help you solve it?

Most popular person? Most likable person? Most attractive person? Most articulate person? Most experienced person? Most knowledgable person?
If you're like most of us, you'd pick the most experienced, most knowledgable person to help.

In the world of investment portfolios those people would be the managers of the Harvard, Yale, and Princeton Endowments. Together, these 3 portfolios exceed $130 Billion ... (that's 130,000 million)!!! 3 portfolios worth 130,000 million dollars!! WITH THAT AMOUNT OF MONEY AT STAKE ... THE PORTFOLIO MANAGERS ARE EXPERIENCED & KNOWLEDGABLE.

Oh ... did I mention that their performance is outstanding??

So, when I have a complex portfolio management question... who should I look to?

Well guess what... portfolio management is getting more complex.
(Emerging economies, devaluation of the US dollar, trade defecits, complicated monitary policy, inflation, energy costs, mortgage melt-downs, banks treading on thin ice, etc.)

We can learn a lot by studying the big endowments.
At Harvard, Yale & Princeton, they know what they're doing.

When you follow a leader (who is experienced & knowledgable) you want to walk in their foot-prints.
Inflation ... it looks like it is here ... NOW.
Consumer Price Index #s (CPI) just came out for July & they show double the increase that was expected. DOUBLE! Inflation is now running at its highest rate in 17 years. (Can you even remember 1991?) HIGHEST IN 17 YEARS!

That's a problem. The CPI reflects the cost of goods. If we are paying more for the "stuff we gotta' have" (gasoline, food, clothing, etc...) we don't have money for the "stuff we want." If we can't afford the stuff we want (like eating out, going on vacation, going to the movies) the economy is bound to suffer. Can you say "recession?" I know you can.

And in a recession, chances are your investments could take a "hit" too. UGH!

So what can you do??

Here are some ideas to consider:
  • Increase the Foreign (emerging) portion of your holdings.
  • Look into TIPS (Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities).
  • Don't give up on Real Estate... all real estate is not the same.
  • Consider owning "hard asset" securities in your accounts.

If inflation is really here, fasten your seat belts ... it is bound to be a bumpy ride.